The Bookiebeater

Satisfying Accumulators

2008-01-26T10:42:00.000Z

Last weekend's 6 match accumulator was very satisfying. The odds were terrible, admittedly, and three of the six matches ended up 1-0 but £10 became £24.72 and that is all that matters.

Celtic, Besiktas, Anderlecht, Benfica, Sporting Lisbon and Porto were the favoured teams.

This weekend sees most of Europe getting back to playing football after the winter break but unfortunately it is FA Cup weekend in England. Would you put money on Liverpool at 1/100?

I've gone for Rangers, Linfield and Bayern Munich at 2/7, 1/7 and 1/7 respectively in a three-match accumulator. Should things work out as planned, then serious consideration will be given to moving some of the proceeds on to PSV Eindhoven and Roma this evening.

Sunday's selections are still undecided but are likely to include AC Milan and AEK Athens (and maybe Olympiakos depending on how brave I feel).

Good luck whatever way you decide to go.

Cup Weekend

2008-01-12T09:45:00.000Z

Last weekend saw some big names struggle in the 3rd round of the FA Cup. Liverpool could only draw with lowly Luton Town and Everton crashed out at home to Oldham!

Should the Bookiebeater have a bash at backing better teams this weekend in the cup matches taking place in Scotland and Northern Ireland? Of course.

Celtic are at home to Stirling Albion which should be a "gimme". Priced at 1/20 it hardly seems worthwhile though it is a 5% return on investment!

Portadown and Coleraine play Newington and Tobermore United respectively. The home teams are facing "junior" opposition in the Irish Cup and are priced at 1/7 and 2/9. They should be too strong for the youngsters.

And finally - a rule-breaking bet on Linfield (also priced at 2/9). Linfield face Loughgall but the rule-breaker is actually the fact that Linfield are away from home.

This quad should just about double your money - but they are cup matches so be careful!

The Land of the Celts?

2007-12-22T14:20:00.000Z

Today's BookieBeater bets have been placed and it is to the Celtic isles that the money goes.

Celtic are priced at 3/10 to beat managerless Hibernian at Celtic Park. Celtic need to win to keep the pressure on Rangers.

Linfield are priced at 1/4 to beat Glenavon. Linfield have a formidable record at Windsor Park and they will be keen to take maximum points as they try to keep the pressure on Cliftonville.

For those who like a punt though - try Ballymena United at 4/7. They have been playing terrific football recently and there are whispers that they may just be strong enough to mount a serious title challenge themselves!

A No Bet Saturday?

2007-12-15T09:31:00.001Z

I'm struggling today. I'm sat staring at the computer screen trying to identify where all my favourite teams are and I can't see them - at least, I can't see them playing at home against weak opposition.

Bayern Munich are away; Linfield are away; Rangers are playing Hearts; Glentoran are playing Crusaders; the top English teams are playing each other tomorrow!

One glimmer of hope is Porto but I'm not even sure I can be bothered with that! Schalke maybe? At 1-2 it is an option.

So - nothing happening today. Indeed, a look ahead to Sunday is almost as disappointing. Ajax face PSV for example. Only Real Madrid at home to Osasuna at 2-7 looks worthy of a Bookie Beater bet!

The Champions League

2007-11-06T17:16:00.000Z

The Bookie Beater was disappointed at the weekend. AEK Athens was a let-down!

However, we can pick ourselves up again tonight with a punt on Valencia who face Rosenborg in the Champions League priced at 2/9.

I shan't be doubling up this bet as the remaining fixtures are not to my liking. However, I do play an online score-prediction game for Champions League matches. The scores I've gone for tonight are:

Shaktar 1-2 AC Milan
Celtic 2-0 Benfica
Olympiakos 1-0 Real Madrid
Lazio 1-1 Werder Bremen
Valencia 5-0 Rosenborg
Schalke 2-2 Chelsea
Liverpool 3-0 Besiktas
Porto 2-0 Marseille

It will be interesting to see how many of these I have got correct! I've managed to get 7 correct this season so far (out of 48 matches)!

Can The Good Week Continue?

2007-11-03T08:32:00.001Z

Villareal, Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur all won on Wednesday and the £11 bet returned £22.10.

There are plenty of options for you Bookie Beaters today (Saturday). A lot of the big boys around Europe are playing at home and you could take your pick from:

Spartak Moscow (@ 1/12)
Bayern Munich (@ 2/11)
Werder Bremen (@ 2/7)
Rangers (@ 1/5)
Glentoran (@ 2/9)
Linfield (@ 2/5)
Aston Villa (@ 4/9)
Cliftonville (@ 3/10)
Olympiakos (@ 1/4)
Lillestrom (@ 2/9)
Anderlecht (@ 2/7)
Club Brugge (@ 1/3)
AC Milan (@ 2/7)

This Bookie Beater, however, is going to split his bets. £14 on Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen and £16 on Rangers, Glentoran and Linfield.

If all goes well during the day, then some of the proceeds may go to Anderlecht.

Ghoulish Night Ahead?

2007-10-31T08:43:00.001Z

It's Halloween - the night for ghosts, witches, wizards, zombies, etc. In other words - a scary night!

Hopefully the night won't be too scary though as the Bookie Beater is going for a treble! Even more astonishingly, the Bookie Beater is heading to Italy as well!

Inter Milan face Genoa and are priced at 1/4: Inter Milan are the only form team worth backing in Italy just now. They don't concede goals and should be too good for Genoa, but hey - this is Italy, so anything can happen.

Villareal face Levante and are priced at 1/4: Villareal ought to be too good for Levante and the Spanish Primera has been a reasonable hunting ground.

Tottenham Hotspur face Blackpool and are priced at 2/7: This is a strange one. It's the Carling Cup which I typically avoid as the decent teams only seem to field reserves in this fixture. However, Spurs have just appointed a new manager - Juan Ramos. Surely his hotshots will want to impress on his debut? Failure to beat Blackpool could mean a lot of the players will be leaving Spurs in the January transfer window!

The Paddy Power pot needs a £11 bet and this treble equates to a little over 2/1.

Happy Halloween.

Italian Woes

2007-10-29T16:41:00.001Z

The weekend saw victories for the Bookie Beater in the guise of Barcelona (2-0), Sparta Prague (3-1) and Celtic (3-0). However, the weekend was spoiled by a lacklustre performance from Standard Liege who could only manage a 2-2 draw with Mechelen.

It has been a tough season so far - much tougher than the last two years. It got me thinking about why it is proving more difficult to get results right this time round.

AC Milan losing at home to Empoli
AC Milan drawing at home with Catania
Sampdoria drawing at home with Hajduk
Inter Milan drawing at home with Udinese
Juventus losing at home to Udinese

There's almost a theme here! Why are the Italian clubs playing so poorly compared to previous seasons. Spain, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland are still good hunting grounds but Italy seems to throw up "odd" results too frequently this time round.

Inter Milan and Fiorentina are the only clubs unbeaten so far whilst AC Milan languish in 13th place in the league. Even Juventus have conceded more than a goal a game this term.

So... stay clear of Italy until the league position starts to settle down? Maybe. Looks like those clubs are jittering (a bit like Liverpool at fortress Anfield!).

Double Joy

2007-09-02T09:05:00.000Z

Rangers & Shaktar won 4-0 and 4-1 in a mid-afternoon double. The odds may have been 1/8 and 2/9 but that was still a 37% return on investment.

That mid-afternoon double was followed by an evening double as Dynamo Kiev and Feyenoord both recorded 2-0 victories (at 1/7 and 1/6).

Bouyed by the "double doubles", this afternoon is getting another double - Ajax and Roma (at 1/4 and 1/5 respectively). Ajax face Groningen while Roma face Siena. Italy has been troublesome for the Bookie Beater this season already but that run of bad luck surely can't continue today, can it?

11 on the trot

2007-08-18T09:41:00.000Z

Kilkenny and Academica didn't put up much of a fight against the Bookie Beater selections last night. 5-1 and 4-1 defeats at the hands of Cork City and Sporting Lisbon means it's now 11 selections correct in a row for the Paddy Power Pot. It also means the pot now stands at £71.35 which is a 43% return since the start of the season - Bank Beating stuff!

Of course, one wrong bet could undo all the good work so far and this Saturday could prove quite tricky.

A £17 bet is required but there aren't many of the "big boys" playing at home this weekend. However, the £17 will go on Rangers this afternoon who face Falkirk at Ibrox.

A second bet may be placed on Dinamo Bucharest and AZ Alkmaar but that decision will rest on the result of the Rangers game.

Spain is Main if you're looking for a Gain!

2007-08-17T07:35:00.000Z

Atletico Madrid put Vojvodina to the sword last night with a 3-0 home win which should book their place in the next round of the UEFA cup. It has been a good week in Spain with Valencia and Atletico both doing the necessary for the Paddy Power Pot.

Friday night normally means some Portuguese and Irish action and tonight is no different.

Cork City play hosts to Kilkenny and are priced at 1/5. Sporting Lisbon are priced at 1/4 for their match against Academica. The Paddy Power Pot demands a £15 bet and prices of 1/5 and 1/4 on a double will provide a £22.50 return.

The weekend sees a number of countries around Europe kick off their league season. Just as well because there aren't too many BookieBeater bets on the go. Rangers and AZ Alkmaar look the best of a bad bunch for now as most of the Big Boys are playing away from home!

An update on Saturday's betting strategy will appear after further analysis.

Back To Spain

2007-08-16T10:41:00.000Z

Valencia won rather easily on Tuesday evening - 3-0. That has moved the Paddy Power pot up another notch which means there is now £15 available to be "invested" in the next set of matches.

Tonight sees many of Europe's middle ranking teams battle it out for a place in the next stage of the UEFA cup. Many of the big boys have been drawn away from home but there is one match that stands out as a Bookie Beater Bet: Atletico Madrid are priced at 1/7 against Vojvodina. They may be without Fernando Torres now, but Atletico should pack a big enough punch to win this match.

Low Odd Certainty?

2007-08-14T17:21:00.001Z

Valencia may be priced at 1/7 for tonight's match against Elfsborg but a Champions League place is up for grabs and it would be difficult to imagine Valencia not making good use of their home advantage.

The Paddy Power Pot demands a £14 bet and that is what it is getting!

Super Saturday!

2007-08-12T08:13:00.000Z

Linfield won
Glentoran won
Anderlecht won
Rangers won
Bayern Munich won
Stetaua Bucharest won
Shaktar Donetsk won
Standard Liege won

Glentoran and Linfield scored 11 goals between them so it was quite surprising to see odds offered of 4/11 and 1/3 respectively. Saturday pushed both the Paddy Power pot and the Sky Bet pot up by 10%. What bank can match those returns?

Today should be about putting money on Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. However, the Chelsea camp may not be a happy one just now and they are missing some key players. I'm avoiding that one. Arsenal take to the pitch without Thierry Henry who left the club in the summer for Barcelona. How will they cope? I'm not wagering any money on them while we wait to see! And Manchester United? They will win but I've already earned enough this weekend so I may just sit back and enjoy watching this game!

Big Weekend Ahead

2007-08-11T09:18:00.000Z

The Sky Bet account got off to a steady start on Wednesday as Shaktar won their match against Pyunik which means another £12 bet this weekend can be placed.

Sky Bet take bets on Northern Irish matches which is great news for the Bookie Beater. Linfield and Glentoran have traditionally been very strong at home in this league and while it is not uncommon to see ridiculously short odds remember, a return is a return. 1/10 is a 10% return on your investment!

Today, the Sky Bet account sees its £12 go on Linfield at 1/3 and the money being doubled up on Anderlecht at 1/5. If the results go the Bookie Beater way, that £12 will grow to £19.20.

On the Paddy Power front, the Bookie Beater is attempting a treble! Bayern Munich at 1/6, Rangers at 1/6 and Glentoran at 4/11. The £9 bet should grow to £16.70 if all goes well.

WORD OF WARNING
The Bookie Beater experiment is in its third season and results have traditionally been difficult to determine in during August, September, March & April. Do newly promoted teams punch above their weight during these months? Possibly. No matter what the reason for the phenomenon, care must be taken over the coming weeks and even this Bookie Beater is slightly nervous about today's matches. After all, for many of the teams it is the first day of the new season!

We're Off Again

2007-08-05T08:25:00.000Z

Today marks the beginning of a new Bookie Beater season - 2007-2008. This time round, the Paddy Power and Sky Bet pots will both start off with £50. Last season's profits have been locked in!

The Paddy Power pot is immediately being reduced by £12, however. Celtic v Kilmarnock @ 1/5 meets the Bookie Beater criteria and 25% of the pot (rounded down) has been placed.

There are some cracking ties coming up this week. There are plenty of Champions League qualifiers to be played with most of the home teams being clear favourites: Shaktar, Rosenborg, Steaua, Sparta Prague, etc. More analysis will follow but expect bets to be placed on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Next week, the Barclays Premiership gets underway and Chelsea & Manchester United should kick off their respective seasons with home wins. Bayern Munich should also ease to a win despite losing so many players over the summer.

Looking ahead... there's no doubt that the Bookie Beater will continue to back the big boys. Chelsea, Celtic, Manchester United, Barcelona, Lyon, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, Linfield and Glentoran. Of course, that doesn't mean that I will be limited to these clubs!

Good luck for the season ahead.

Never Break The Rules!

2007-07-16T07:33:00.000Z

I must say I was tempted to put some money Argentina's way yesterday. They have been sublime in their march to the final of the Copa America and the 3-0 scoreline last night was not entirely unexpected.

EXCEPT ARGENTINA ENDED THE MATCH WITH THE 0!

Yes, Brazil out-thought and out-muscled their more talented neighbours. Even without Kaka and Ronaldinho, Brazil looked in control.

Riquelme, Tevez and Messi failed to live up to their reputations.

The result is a reminder to Bookie Beaters - the rules are there to protect. Obey the rules!

Breaking The Rules

2007-07-13T10:35:00.000Z

A Bookie Beater never breaks his rules.

However, if I were a rule-breaker, I'd be looking long and hard at the Brazil-Argentina Copa America final.

It could get very Messi for Brazil based on current form. They hobbled their way to the final via a penalty shoot out in the semi-final whereas Argentina have stormed their way to the final.

So Riquelme v Ronaldinho; Messi v Robinho?

Gotta be Argentina really. And the bookies agree - just. Argentina are currently quoted at 10/11 to win in normal time. Basically - you can double your money if Argentina click on the night.

Question is - am I a rule breaker? I've got 48 hours to decide!

Why the inactivity?

2007-06-10T10:01:00.000Z

There have been no bets recently and for very good reason. The season has ended in most countries around Europe!

Of course, there are still games being played but I'm feeling quite nervy about them. Barcelona and Real Madrid are involved in a real struggle to win La Liga and both could only secure 2-2 draws last night. They are now level on points with just one game to go! I'm not betting on either of them.

There are games being played elsewhere in the world but those who understand the BookieBeater will understand that he avoids those countries which he doesn't understand!

One other piece of news - UK Betting is now Sky Bet. My account has been moved and I'll probably do a review of the service at some point in the near future.

Saints Go Marching?

2007-05-06T16:06:00.000Z

West Brom managed to give their supporters an "End of Season" treat by serving up a festival of goals - 7 in all.

Their 7-0 victory certainly humbled Southampton's meagre 4-1 win but both victories earned a £68 return for the Bookie Beater.

It's been another successful Sunday. Avid followers will already recognise that Sundays are Bookie Beater days as they consistently outperform Fridays and Saturdays.

End of Season Pitfalls

2007-05-06T09:00:00.000Z

Liverpool, mindful of their Champions League Final in Athens in 3 weeks time, fielded virtually a reserve team on Saturday against Fulham. They made 9 changes from the team that beat Chelsea during the week! Fulham won the match - my money stayed in my pocket!

It's a typical scenario at this time of year but today, there are teams who need to win.

The English second division (now called the Championship) provides the excitement today as it is the final day of the regular season. Birmingham and Sunderland have already been promoted but there is only 1 point between them as they battle it out to see who wins the league.

Derby County have made the play-offs and have nothing now to play for, which leaves us with the battle for the 3 remaining play-off positions.

Only 2 points separates West Brom, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Southampton, Stoke City and Preston North End (in that order). Indeed, Southampton are only ahead of Stoke City by virtue of the fact that they have scored more goals!

So my £41 Paddy Power bet today is:
- Southampton to beat Southend (at 1/4)
- West Brom to beat Barnsley (at 1/3)

Season's Conclusions

2007-04-30T06:49:00.000Z

It was tight enough (according to the scoreline), but Barcelona managed to win their home match with Levante swelling the Paddy Power fund even further.

I'm in a position whereby it may be necessary to draw this season to a conclusion. I'm not touching any further Champions League matches (too close to call) and I'm avoiding domestic cup competitions (for the same reason).

The European leagues have gone weird:

Poor teams are scrapping for survival and punching above their weight
Good teams are resting their stars in favour of playing them in the cup competitions
Really good teams are getting the jitters as the home in on the league title
Fabulous teams aren't bothering to raise their game at all because they've already won the league

So where does that leave me?

Well, the £40 pot at the start of the season has quadrupled in value which ranks quite well with other "investment schemes":

£40 - £150: The Bookiebeater
£40 - £70: Property (in Northern Ireland)
£40 - £45: FT100 Tracker Fund (Stocks & Shares)
£40 - £42 : Bank or Building Society Savings Account

And I'm looking forward to next season! (Of course, if I will continue to look for value and if I find any worthwhile bets, I'll continue my investment scheme.)

Stuggling To Find Value

2007-04-29T10:13:00.000Z

I looked at the list of matches being played around Europe on Saturday morning and couldn't see a single game that I wanted to risk my money on. I trotted off to work in the garden instead.

It's that funny time of year you see. Liverpool fielded a reserve team against Portsmouth; Chelsea are getting the jitters; Linfield have already won the league as have Celtic.

Today is much the same. Do I back AEK Athens? Not sure! Do I back PSV? What's the incentive for them to put in the required effort to beat Vittesse?

I have finally plumped for putting £39 on Barcelona beating Levante. I can't find another match to double the bet so I'm leaving it at that. Barcelona still have some work to do in order to win La Liga, so they should be up for making sure they get nothing less than a win tonight.

Going Dutch

2007-04-19T19:12:00.000Z

Ajax and Barcelona won handsomely last night - 3-1 and 5-2 respectively. These matches were both cup matches which are notoriously tricky, so I'm glad to have got the right results.

AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda at 2/7 has got £36 of my cash tonight. The last time they met (in the league), AZ Alkmaar won 8-1. I'm sure the result won't be as convincing tonight - I'd be happy with a 1-0 win.

Big Boy Bets

2007-04-18T18:48:00.000Z

Tonight, Ajax and Barcelona are playing at their respective home stadiums and Paddy Power is offering odds of 1/6 and 2/7 for them to beat RKC and Getafe.

I'm having a piece of that action with £32. That ought to nett me a £48 return (£16 profit) if everything goes according to plan.