Sunday, 28 January 2007

The Psychology of Gambling

Casual followers of the Bookie Beater may be forgiven for believing that I am a hardened gambler but the truth is that I have rarely stepped foot in a bookies.

I do, however, enjoy my football and do try to test my knowledge of football against the bookmakers each week. My Paddy Power Pot has grown from £40 (~$80) to over £180 (~$360) this season which is a respectable return - it beats the bank's interest rates and the house price rises!

This isn't the first time that I've managed that kind of return. Indeed, growing a pot from just a mere £40 to £180 seems relatively straightforward - even with the odd setback.

In theory, growing £40,000 to £180,000 should be just as easy. Shouldn't it?

I'm fairly sure that it isn't as easy and for a very simple reason. My decision making process seems fairly flawless when I'm gambling £10 or £20 but when it gets to placing bets of £50 and above, something strange happens. It's as if sub-consciously I know that the money could be put to other uses: buying a Digital Radio, taking the wife out to a nice restaurant or giving it to charity. My bets become less frequent, I start to become more cautious and I invariably start to make bad decisions.

Just when the bets start to make some serious money, the decision making process becomes flawed. And it is no use trying to convince me that I'm now playing with somebody else's money - I know I can cash in my pot at any time.

As Delboy used to say "He who dares... wins". Well, if I'm ever going to become a millionaire I need to learn to be able to apply the same logic to my £50 bets as I do to my £5 bets. If I can do that, then in another 60 winning matches I will have my £2,000. Another 40 after that and I will be on £10,000. Another 40 after that and I will be mortgage free!

Sounds simple, doesn't it?

If any psychologists know how to help me ensure that my decision making is disassociated with the value of the bet, then I'd love to hear from you.

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